Buy Signals & The G-Zone

As you can see from the picture above, wild animals have moved in with us. The kittens have a few strange habits but, all in all, are a good addition to the team.

This week I'm going to share some ideas about what I am seeing in the financial world as well as discuss how July went for me (in an athletic sense).

First an announcement on 2009 Training Camps. Right now, I have committed to three training camps. Each camp has a slightly different focus that I'll touch on. If you are interested in more information on any of them then drop me a line.

Side note -- cyclists are welcome to any of the Endurance Corner camps, the swim/run aspects are optional.

Endurance Corner Tucson Camp -- March 29 to April 5, 2009 (Sun-Sun), training will run Monday to Saturday. An early season camp with a "training" focus. Appropriate for 13 hour and faster IM athletes -- as well as -- 6 hour and faster Half IM athletes. Highlights will include Mt Lemmon, Cactus Forest Trail, Kitt Peak and Madera Canyon. We will be based at The Hotel Arizona -- camp price is all inclusive for the week ($2,350).

Epic Camp France -- June 13 to 22, 2009, training will run Sunday to Sunday. It must be the Kiwi Winters but John and Scott have upgraded our initial thoughts on route. This one will be doozy! Highlights will include the Galibier, the EmbrunMan Bike Course and Stage 17 from this year's Tour (Embrun to Alpe d'Huez, massive). We will finish off the camp with an EpicMan competition that includes a TT up Alpe d'Huez -- camp price is all inclusive and expected to be ~e3,300. Epic Camp is only appropriate for athletes in sub-11 hour shape -- be prepared for up to 27 hours of training in the first three days of the camp.


Endurance Corner Boulder Camp -- open to all abilities, all distances -- July 20 to 25, 2009. Camp starts the Monday following Boulder Peak Triathlon. Camp will mix education with training.

During the day we will take advantage of the outstanding terrain that is offered in, and around, Boulder. Evenings will include expert speakers on a range of subjects (nutrition, mental skills, building your training week, getting the most out of our bodies). The price point on this camp will be lower as athletes will sort their own breakfasts/lunches/accommodation/transfers -- we will handle support, sag, sports nutrition, and dinners. More info to come -- drop me a line if you want to reserve a slot.

If you've been looking for an opportunity to train with me (and my network) but were concerned about your "speed" then the Boulder Camp is a great opportunity for you. It will be an active week that blends physical fitness with education on performance and personal wellness.

Speaking of personal wellness... Alternative Perspectives has a great piece from Kevin Purcell about a number of different factors that relate to endurance sport and exercise. Click THIS LINK to check it out.

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Buy Signals
There hasn't been a whole lot of good news on the financial, or economic, fronts recently and this has started to impact my outlook. Here are some of the things that I have been reminding myself over the last little while:

Pricing -- prices move at the margin. Stepping back from commodity markets (which I don't understand), the "margin" appears to be characterized by increasing supply, reduced ability to pay and increasing risk premiums.

Transaction Volume -- the people that I know with the capacity to pay are staying on the sidelines. A few are dabbling in commodities but no one is, yet, investing real money (for them). Regardless of what they say publicly, I don't see the international banks doing much external lending. As I wrote a few months ago, what seems to be happening is internal discussions on how best to sort their existing client relationships. Done properly, an active restructuring of loan portfolios could prove to be profitable for the banks (and painful for the shareholders of non-performing loans).

I started my career in the early 90s when asset values were falling, PE ratios were (relatively) low and leverage was only available on conservative terms. In that market, my firm made solid profits from backing solid management teams and cash flow businesses. However, what really helped was multiple, liquidity and leverage expansion (a tailwind of mushrooming global liquidity).

I've been thinking about how one might profit when things turnaround. Haven't come up with anything -- although I have put any US property investments on hold while the financial sector's liquidity position continues to weaken.

Another thing that I remind myself of... the world isn't ending. Times are tough for the people at the "margin", no doubt about that -- if you are working in a factory building SUVs then there will be very real stress. However, broadly speaking, the economy is rolling along, slower but still moving.

Given the scale of the write-offs in the financial sector, the economy is doing well. Perhaps there is a longer lag effect that has yet to be seen. I expected the impact from last summer's credit crunch to be larger and more severe. My contacts in the banking sector lead me to believe that there could be a wave of "action" coming towards the end of this year. In the past, I've found that most large organizations prefer inaction, over action, in a crisis situation.

If the banks start taking clear, consistent action on their loan books, that would lead me to believe that we are through the worst of the crisis. Right now, most organizations continue to consider their options.

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The G-Zone
I am typing this blog from the base of Mt Evans, Colorado. My training buddy, Ed, is likely heading down from the summit. I missed the summit due to fatigue -- my high altitude run training seems to require extended recovery. Even with the extra fatigue, I love it in the high Rockies.

Ed made the observation that many triathlon writers have a background current of anger in their blogs and forum posts. The anger is something that I have noticed and stopped reading certain sites/writers because of it.

Perhaps anger is too strong a word -- a better way to put it might be "grumpy". I was swapping emails with Tom and Scott the other day. Tom made the comment that his training approach was designed to avoid getting too grumpy. Scott was forgiving me for an email that was sent
during a very grumpy afternoon!

So maybe that is another early warning signal that an athlete may have done enough training... when we move from being fatigued into the Grumpy-Zone.

I called Monica this morning from Vail and made sure to point out that I was merely tired, not grumpy. She chuckled and said that the drive back to Boulder offered plenty of time to enter the G-Zone.

Anyhow, when guys as experienced as Evans/Molina warn about the G-Zone... it might make sense to keep on eye on it. When the world starts to drive us crazy, perhaps we are simply a little over-reached.

Cheers via bootleg wireless in the high Rockies,
gordo